A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
A reversion to average might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
