A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
