Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past
This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Danger & A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
